Leading Through Uncertainty: What History Says Really Works
If you’re tired of hearing “unprecedented times,” blame 2020 and its 70,830% increase in the phrase’s use in corporate presentations, earnings calls, and annual filings.
The COVID-19 pandemic was not unprecedented. It was very, very precedented. In fact, it’s the 5th deadliest pandemic, behind the 1918 Spanish flu, bubonic plague, HIV/AIDS, and the Black Death.
What WAS unprecedented was the context, and people were so focused on it that they missed the lessons of previous precedented pandemics.
Six years later, companies and the media have swapped “unprecedented times” for the specificity of named economic, geopolitical, climate, and technological crises. But we’re still overlooking what history taught us.
These are precedented times
This is not the first time that multiple macro changes have hit at once. It’s also not the first time that institutions have struggled or failed to respond, resulting in late, misinformed, or ineffective efforts.
Consider:
- 3rd Century Rome (235-284 CE): The murder of Emperor Alexander Severus kicked off 50 years of civil war, inflation, plague, and invasion that ended when Aurelian and Diocletian used the military to crush the rebellions and rebuilt the government.
- 14th Century Europe (1315-1400): The Great Famine kicked off decades of plague, war, political chaos, and death-obsessed art that ended when mass deaths created a labor shortage that gave survivors real bargaining power and weakened serfdom.
- The Interwar Years (1918-1939): World War I and the 1918 flu kicked off two decades of hyperinflation, depression, and lost faith in democracy that ended with World War II and the deliberate rebuild of Europe and Japan.
History didn’t repeat, but it rhymed. When people felt they’d lost control over the things that mattered most, they withdrew and looked for someone to blame, while a minority reached for radical or authoritarian “fixes.” Each crisis ended when they regained confidence that their actions mattered.
That’s the lesson we missed in 2020 and risk missing again. If we wait decades for institutions to rebuild, we stay stuck.
If we see that our actions matter and reclaim agency, we start move forward, first as individuals, then as a society.
There is a precedented solution
When everything feels out of control, the usual advice is to try harder, do more with less, embrace uncertainty, or “just play” with the thing stressing you out.
What works is establishing a safe haven, one small aspect of your life where your action improves the outcome in a way you can see and, over time, predict.
Start with one thing you fully control
Leaders are often tempted to start with their teams. But, as the airplane safety briefing tells us, you need to put your own mask on first before helping others.
Your job is also the wrong place to start, because research shows that losing a safe haven can leave you worse off than never having one. So don’t build it where one board decision can change everything.
Build your personal safe haven:
- Pick one thing, like baking a cake, tending a plant, or going for a weekly run.
- Schedule it because knowing when it happens gives almost the same benefit as choosing it.
- Make the result visible by taking a photo, writing down your time, or giving yourself a gold star.
Then help your team:
Once you have your safe haven, help your team build theirs. When people believe their actions don’t matter, they stop taking initiative and avoid making decisions.
To help them feel in control:
- Give each person one thing they own from start to finish.
- Offer small, real choices about how or when work gets done.
- Make things predictable, like not rescheduling 1:1s and announcing decision dates early.
Your safe haven won’t fix the economy, the climate, or AI. It isn’t meant to. It’s meant to remind your brain that your actions still matter, so you and your team have the energy to find creative ways through what you can’t control.
FAQs
Why do people resist change when everything feels out of control?
Because they believe their actions don’t matter. History shows the pattern. In 3rd Century Rome, 14th Century Europe, and the Interwar Years, people who felt they’d lost control over the things that mattered most withdrew and looked for someone to blame. Inside a team, the same belief makes people stop taking initiative and avoid making decisions. Each crisis ended when people regained confidence that their actions mattered.
How can a leaders build a sense of control during uncertain times?
Build a safe haven: one small part of your life where your action improves the outcome in a way you can see and, over time, predict. Start with yourself, not your team. Skip your job too, because losing a safe haven can leave you worse off than never having one. Pick one thing, like baking a cake or a weekly run. Schedule it. Make the result visible.
How do you help your team feel in control when so much is uncertain?
Put your own mask on first, then help your team build their safe havens. Give each person one thing they own from start to finish. Offer small, real choices about how or when work gets done. Make things predictable: don’t reschedule 1:1s, and announce decision dates early. It won’t fix the economy. It reminds people their actions still matter, so they have energy for what they can’t control.
