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Why Your Tools for Uncertainty are Coming Up Short

Why Your Tools for Uncertainty are Coming Up Short

by | Aug 24, 2026 | Leading Through Uncertainty, Tips, Tricks, & Tools

By now you (hopefully) know that uncertainty and ambiguity are different things caused by different combinations of knowns. But, as GI Joe taught every 80s kid, knowing is half the battle.

Doing is the other half.

 

 

Knowing about knowing

Whether it’s diagnosis, decision-making, or quantification, there are literally hundreds of different frameworks designed to manage uncertainty. With so many choices in breadth, depth, and application, choosing which one to use is an exercise in navigating uncertainty.

The Knowability Matrix (below) is rooted in the distinction that the US Army War College draws between uncertainty and ambiguity, specifically the knowability about the situation (question) and  solution (answer). It’s further supported by neurological studies into the brain’s chemical reactions to different states of not-knowing.

2x2 matrix with Clatiy of Question on Y-axis and Clarity of Answer on X-axis

Diagnosing the state of not-knowing you’re in is a critically important first step to “solving” the situation. Often referred to as “name it to tame it,” decades of psychological research on the theory is increasingly backed up by neurological studies that show that by simply naming or labeling a negative emotion (even silently) significantly reduces activity in the amygdala (our brain’s fight or flight center).

But that doesn’t change the actual situation.

 

 

Doing because of your knowing

To change the situation, you need to do something. And what you need to do varies by situation.

Risk

  • Knowing state: Question and answer are clear
  • Felt state: Tension, anticipation, caution
  • Tools for resolution: Expected value, probability and actuarial tables, Monte Carlo Simulation, Kelly Criterion, portfolio hedging and diversification, insurance, Value-at-Risk, Six Sigma
  • You might be a RISK expert if you are a: Professional poker player, casino operator, actuary, insurance and reinsurance underwriter, credit-risk officer, reliability engineer

Uncertainty

  • Knowing state: Question is clear, but answer is not
  • Felt state: Suspense and unease
  • Tools for resolution: Bayesian updating, scenario planning, portfolio/diversification of bets, experiments, calibrated forecasting, real options and hedging
  • You might be an UNCERTAINTY expert if you are a: Research scientist, intelligence analyst, meteorologist, epidemiologist, venture capitalist, clinical-trial researcher, detective

Ambiguity

  • Knowing state: Question is unclear, but answer becomes clear when question is determined
  • Felt state: Doubt and unease (especially when trying to clarify the question)
  • Tools for resolution: Problem framing (How might we?), abductive reasoning, prototyping-to-learn, Jobs to be Done, sensemaking,red team/devil’s advocate
  • You might be an AMBIGUITY expert if you are a: Founder or entrepreneur, strategist or design researcher, judge or appellate lawyer, diplomat or negotiator, therapist, anthropologist

Opacity

  • Knowing state: Both question and answer are unclear
  • Felt state: Disorientation or overwhelm
  • Tools for resolution: Impose structure (incident command, triage, checklists), shrink to the next move, OODA loop, act-sense-respond, rely on muscle memory/drilled pattern
  • You might be an OPACITY expert if you are a: First responder, incident commander, ER professional in a mass casualty event, war correspondent, wildfire and disaster response pro

 

The difficulty of doing

 As anyone who has ever struggled to lose weight, quit a bad habit, or start a healthy one knows, there’s a huge gap between knowing what you should do and actually doing it. This “Knowing-Doing Gap” isn’t just a reality individuals face when trying to change. It’s baked into how companies operate.

For centuries, businesses followed relatively predictable cycles. Sure, a war, depression, or radical technology popped up every now and then, but eventually everything settled back down.

As a result, companies got really good at managing Risk. They knew the questions and the answers so they could rely on actuarial and probability tables, Monte Carlo analyses, portfolios, hedging, and insurance to get them through uncertainty.

Now we live in an unpredictable world and risk management tools don’t work in Uncertainty, Ambiguity, and Opacity. But, because they’re the tools we know, they’re the tools that get used.

Until we have the courage to let go of the familiar but wrong tool and learn the right one, the call to “embrace uncertainty” will continue to be as productive as hugging a cactus.

FAQs

Is knowing which state of uncertainty you're in enough to move forward?

No. Diagnosis tells you which tool to use. It doesn’t guarantee the organization uses it. Even with the right tool in hand, growth decisions can still stall on reasonable-looking resistance: one more signoff, a handoff with no owner, a priority that quietly shifts. 

Why do people use the wrong tools to solve problems?

Because those tools are what we know. For centuries, businesses built expertise in managing Risk (clear questions, clear answers) using tools like probability tables and hedging. Now most business problems are Uncertain, Ambiguous, or Opaque, where those same tools don’t work. But because they’re familiar, they still get used. Progress requires the courage to let go of the wrong-but-known tool for the right one.

Can a situation move from one state to another over time?

Yes. The four states aren’t fixed labels, they’re diagnoses of what’s still unknown right now. As problem framing, prototyping, or sensemaking clarify a fuzzy question, an Ambiguous situation often resolves into a clear Uncertainty or even a Risk problem. When that happens, the right toolkit changes with it. What worked for framing the question won’t work for hedging the answer.

Uncertainty vs. Ambiguity: The Difference That Drives Your Behavior

Uncertainty vs. Ambiguity: The Difference That Drives Your Behavior

by | Aug 17, 2026 | Leading Through Uncertainty

There’s a famous PSA from the 1980s in which a dad-like figure sighs with exhausted resignation, as he holds up an egg and explains it’s your brain, points to a frying pan and explains it’s drugs, then cracks the egg into the pan and, as it sizzles, states “this is your brain on drugs.”

It’s also your brain on uncertainty.

As you’ve probably heard, we’re living in a VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) world. You’ve no doubt seen VUCA-ness play out in your workplace and your world and felt the impact of it.

And you’ve likely heard that you simply need to “embrace uncertainty.”

That’s terrible advice.

It’s like telling someone to hug a cactus. It hurts and no one benefits.

But you can try to understand it.

 

 

VUCA describes an external situation

 The US Army War College popularized the acronym VUCA when it began using it in 1987 to describe “a more complex multilateral world perceived as resulting from the end of the Cold War.” Intended to be used as a framework to understand and articulate opportunities and challenges:

  • V = Volatility: fast and frequent change
  • U = Uncertainty: unpredictability of events’ size, timing, and impact
  • C = Complexity: the existence of many interconnected parts
  • A = Ambiguity: the existence of multiple interpretations and unknown odds

While Volatility and Complexity describe two different facets of a situation: speed and interconnectedness respectively, Uncertainty and Ambiguity both refer to the knowability of an answer.

And that’s where things get complicated.

 

 

Knowability exists on a 2×2 (because, of course)

We often use Uncertainty and Ambiguity as synonyms, but there’s an important difference between the two:

  • Clarity of the question: Do I know what I am trying to figure out?
  • Clarity of the answer: Do I know the outcomes or odds?

Put it together, and TA DA! you get a 2×2:

2x2 matrix with Clatiy of Question on Y-axis and Clarity of Answer on X-axis

This 2×2 isn’t just a neat trick to renew my consulting license (not a real thing but, if it were, 2×2 usage would be a qualifying criterion). It’s essential to understanding how our brain reacts to a situation and our resulting feelings and behaviors.

 

 

(Not) Knowing > Feeling > Acting

Each of the four states of Knowing triggers chemical changes in our brains that drive certain behaviors:

Situation Brain and chemistry Felt state it triggers Resulting behavior
Risk

Question clear

Answer known
  • Reward center (nucleus accumbens) anticipates the payoff and releases dopamine
  • Bodily-alarm area (anterior insula) braces for loss
 Minor sense of tension, anticipation or caution
  •  Weigh the odds
  •  Act
Uncertainty

Question clear

Answer unknown
  • Reward and value areas (ventral striatum, ventromedial prefrontal cortex) keep working normally
  • Signaling system (basal forebrain) releases acetylcholine to mark the outcome as known-to-be-unreliable
  • Predictability monitor (anterior cingulate cortex) tracks how predictable things are
 Suspense and mild unease, especially while the answer stays open
  • Gather information
  • Plan for scenarios
  • Prepare for multiple outcomes
  • Proceed with steady caution
Ambiguity

Question unclear

Answer clear once question is determined
  • Threat-and-value areas (amygdala, orbitofrontal cortex) fire more.
  • Reward hub (striatum) quiets down.
  • Conflict monitor (dorsal anterior cingulate cortex) flags the clash between readings.
 Doubt and unease, especially when you can’t decide on the question.
  • Hesitate
  • Avoid
  • Pursue a clear answer even if an unclear one may be more beneficial
Opacity

Question unclear answer unknown
  • Arousal center (locus coeruleus) releases norepinephrine to flag the surprise of an unforeseen outcome.
  • Self-monitoring area (prefrontal cortex) registers that you cannot even frame the situation.
 Disorientation or overwhelm.
  • Freeze
  • Withdraw
  • Rush to an explanation even if it is wrong
Don’t embrace. Understand.

None of the feelings or behaviors above are awesome. That’s why “embracing uncertainty” feels like hugging a cactus.

Starting with your feelings and actions helps you understand the situation you’re in. Which is the first step to solving “uncertainty.”

FAQs

What is the difference between uncertainty and ambiguity?

Uncertainty means the question is clear but the answer isn’t. Ambiguity means the question itself isn’t clear. Uncertainty makes you want more information. Ambiguity makes you hesitate until you know what’s actually being asked.

How do I know if I'm facing uncertainty or ambiguity?

Ask two questions. Do I know what I’m trying to figure out? Do I know the possible outcomes? Clear question, unknown answer: uncertainty. Gather information and plan scenarios. Unclear question: ambiguity. Get clarity before you act.

Why does resistance to change happen, even when a decision is the right one?

Resistance to change often isn’t stubbornness. It’s brain chemistry. When the question is unclear (ambiguity), the amygdala fires, the brain’s reward system quiets, and behavior shifts to hesitating, avoiding, or grabbing a wrong-but-clear answer. When both question and answer are unclear (opacity), people freeze or withdraw. Naming which state you’re in rather than “embracing” it is the first step to moving past it.

Christensen’s #1 Sign You’re About to be Disrupted

Christensen’s #1 Sign You’re About to be Disrupted

by | Jul 21, 2026 | Leadership, Leading Through Uncertainty, Stories & Examples

“Disruption [is] driven by the pursuit of profit. That’s the causal mechanism for these things…”

Clayton Christensen at the 2011 Gartner Symposium ITExpo

When I told a client that peak profit was one of the signs that they were about to be disrupted, his jaw fell open. He didn’t believe me because, like any businessperson, achieving record profit is THE reason to celebrate. His company had just doubled revenue in the past five years and was positioned to double again in the next five. AND they supply mission-critical systems to build out data centers.

Business literally could not be better.

Which is exactly what the CEOs of Big Steel thought in 1968.

 

 

It wasn’t too big to fail.

“US Steel posted record profit margins in the years prior to unseating by the minimills; in many ways it was blind to its disruption.”

Clayton Christensen in HBR

Since the mid 1850s, steel was produced in integrated steel mills that performed every function required to produce the material that was building America. The costs to build a mill were high, about $8B in today’s dollars, and, to operate efficiently, mills ran 24/7 to produce at least 2M tons of steel per year.

In 1968, a metallurgist at Nucor invented something called the minimill.  It could only perform half of the functions of an integrated mill and produced only rebar, the lowest quality of steel. But the minimill cost only $6M and could be profitable at just 50,000 tons of production.

Christensen called the minimill “not good enough.”  He was being nice. The minimill was a joke.

Rebar was a joke, too. At just 4% of the steel market, it had the lowest gross margin of any type of steel. Ceding it to minimills freed up integrated mill capacity to produce more high profit steel. By 1977, Nucor was the leading manufacturer of rebar.

It had also spent 7 years improving the minimill.

The pattern continued:

  • 1984: Big steel cedes the angle iron, bars, and rods to Nucor
  • 1989: Bethlehem Steel’s market value jumps to $2.4B, from $175M just 3 years earlier
  • 1993: Minimills directly compete with integrated mills in all segments of the market.
  • 1995: Bethlehem Steel’s primary plant ceases operations
  • 2001: Bethlehem Steel files for Chapter 11
  • 2003: Minimills production exceeds integrated mills while Bethlehem Steel ceases to exist.

By 2017, only 9 integrated mills were still operating in the US, compared to 111 active minimills. The disruption took 35 years to play out.

 

 

You don’t have 35 years

The steel industry isn’t the only example:

Company Time to Disruption Peak Disruption Disruptor
Sears 30 years 1969: World’s largest retailer 1999: Removed from Dow Jones Industrial Average Walmart, Kmart, Target, Amazon
Kodak 16 years 1996: Record $16B revenue 2012: Filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Digital photography
Blockbuster 6 years 2004: Record revenue: $6B 2010: Filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Redbox, Netflix
Nokia 7 years 2007: Record Net Profit $51B, 40% of global handset market 2014: Handset business sold to Microsoft for $7.2B iPhone, Android
Intel 3 years 2021: Record revenue $79B 2024: Worst ever stock year as price goes below $18/share TSMC, Nvidia

 

 

 

It’s happening right now.  Are you seeing it?

“Financial results measure how healthy the business was, not how healthy the business is. Financial results are a particularly bad tool to manage disruption, because moving up-market feels good financially.”

Clayton Christensen and Michael E. Raynor, The Innovator’s Solution

 Executives and shareholders may feel good right now because, despite supply chain disruptions and high interest rates, earnings are buoyed by “margin expansion” and “revenue beats.” AI feels like an opportunity, not a threat. And there’s no reason to believe that tomorrow’s results will be worse than today’s numbers.

It’s exactly how the CEOs of Big Steel felt in 1968.

You still have time to find the joke.

Emotional Contagion is the Real Driver of Change’s Success

Emotional Contagion is the Real Driver of Change’s Success

by | Jun 23, 2026 | Leadership, Leading Through Uncertainty, Tips, Tricks, & Tools

For eight days, the Tartan Army filled Boston’s streets with kilts, bagpipes, and the constant refrain of “No Scotland. No Party.”  Bars ran out of beer, traffic cones adorned statues, and resident’s souls were healed.

Now, some are saying corporate managers should have the same effect on the people around them (presumably without consuming all the beer in the office).

The possibility of collective effervescence

Collective effervescence is everywhere right now: in New York at the Knicks’ championship parade, the Tarps Off shirtless section at baseball games, at every unexpected draw or win at the World Cup.

It’s the “emotional electricity or excitement that lifts people outside of themselves and makes them feel like they’re connecting to something transcendent,” explains Christina Simko, and associate professor of sociology at William College. “They (members of a crowd) have to have a common focus and a common mood, and through that physical interaction, they generate something … greater than the sum of its parts.”

Greater than the sum of its parts.

Where have a I heard that before?

Could it be in every press release announcing an acquisition, all-hands meeting kicking of a transformation, and email confirming a re-org?

Which explains why I’m reading about the need for executives to create collective effervescence to ensure the success of transformational initiatives.

Seventy percent of transformations fail and one of the leading causes of failure is insufficiently high aspirations. Collective effervescence is sufficiently high but setting that as a metric of success will only drive up the failure rate.

The probability of emotional contagion

Emotional contagion is also everywhere: in the laugh that spreads through a room, the frown that moves around a conference table, the yawns that can’t be suppressed in meetings.

It’s the “phenomenon in which a person unconsciously mirrors or mimics the emotions of those around them” through nonverbal, conversational, or behavioral cues. It can be positive, like smiles and laughs, or negative like frowns or the tension from a tough conversation.

That’s good news for executives.

Leaders are “emotional amplifiers” because team members are more likely to mirror the leader’s tone than their peers. Research out of USC also indicates that, historically, positive emotions are more contagious than negative ones.

It’s also bad news for executives.

The emotional amplifier role cuts both ways and research shows that people tend to “overperceive” negative cues from leaders, even magnifying small emotional cues well beyond what a leader intended.

That means the frown everyone on the company-wide Zoom was most likely interpreted as disagreement, even opposition, to what was being discussed. And not that your shoes are too tight.

 The reality of leading humans through change

Leading people through change is hard. It’s even harder when you’re under a microscope and every smile, frown, sigh, cough, and eye roll is scrutinized and interpreted as if it were a secret code foretelling the future of thousands.

It’s not. But your team believes it is.

And perception is reality.

Here’s how to start shaping reality to make the changes happen:

  • Start with self-awareness. What is your mood right now? If it’s useful to the team, spend time with them. If it’s not, reschedule the meeting or send a proxy.
  • Make direct eye contact with people. According to the research, eye contact during verbal communication activates brain regions that help us understand what someone is saying and what they mean. Just don’t stare. That’s creepy.
  • Neutralize the negativity publicly. A bit of skepticism can be healthy for teams going through change but too much easily crosses over into pessimism and even hostility that spreads throughout the team. So stop the spread by publicly and patiently calling out the behavior and seeking to understand the root cause.

You don’t need collective effervescence to successfully lead change.

You do need spread the belief that change is possible and beneficial.

And you can do that without wearing a kilt.

What Leaders Can Learn From Lobsters (Or, The Importance of Asking Why)

What Leaders Can Learn From Lobsters (Or, The Importance of Asking Why)

by | Jun 17, 2026 | Leadership, Leading Through Uncertainty, Tips, Tricks, & Tools

Up and down New England’s coastline you’ll find lobster (pronounced “lob-stah”) shacks.  These weathered wood structures produce the freshest lobster and crispiest fried seafood anywhere, enjoyed on picnic tables as the sun beats down and the waves crash against the rocky shore.

It was at one of these shacks that, many years ago, I learned priceless lesson.

As my friends and I placed our orders, I asked that the head of my lobster be removed before serving. The waitress looked at me like I had nine heads but wrote down my request and returned to the kitchen. A few minutes later she reappeared and announced that the kitchen refused to decapitate the lobster prior to serving.

“I don’t like making eye contact with my food,” I stammered.

She nodded and walked away.

When she returned with our lobsters, they all had heads but one was noticeably different. It was wearing “sunglasses” made of olives and toothpicks.

“Here,” our waitress said. “Now you don’t have to make eye contact with it.”

 

 

A short-term “solution”

As VUCA-ness (volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous) accelerates, C-suite executives do everything possible to create certainty and construct safety. After all, if the company doesn’t survive the short-term, even the best long-term plans don’t matter.

Evidence of this approach is everywhere:

When these decisions land on your desk, you sigh, knowing they are short-sighted but understanding the rationale. Then, you go implement them, knowing unintended consequences are coming.

 

 

Unintended doesn’t mean unpredictable

In fact, because you are on the frontlines of your business, striving to deliver today and build tomorrow, you can predict what those consequences will be:

It’s frustrating to see the problems coming but feel powerless to avoid them.

But what does any of this have to do with a lobster wearing sunglasses?

 

 

When you know the Why, you can choose the How

When directives land on your desk, don’t sigh and roll them out. Ask for the Why behind the What.

  • Why are employees being forced back to the office? Did productivity decrease? Are mission-critical operations not occurring? Are top-performers leaving for in-person roles?
  • Why are experienced people being let go? Is the work being outsourced or has it genuinely gone? Why are you no longer hiring entry-level people? Are they too expensive to train? Is retention genuinely poor?
  • Why are innovation initiatives being cut? Is the core business in that much trouble? Do we lack the talent? Are we pursuing growth through other means?

Each directive’s Why is different which means you have more options than you realize for delivering the How. Understanding the outcomes the company needs, reveals options for delivering it while minimizing the unintended consequences.

 

 

Don’t decapitate the lobster. Find opportunities for sunglasses.

The kitchen could have easily removed the head from my lobster, but they foresaw the unintended consequences of a disappointing dining experience. When they understood my why, they created a spectacular how.

You don’t control the system so asking “Why?” feels scary, hostile, even mutinous.

You do control your piece of it. You know it better than anyone, so there’s no one better to determine the how.

3 Deaths. 3 Lessons. 3 Questions to Survive (and Thrive)

3 Deaths. 3 Lessons. 3 Questions to Survive (and Thrive)

by | May 5, 2026 | Leadership, Leading Through Uncertainty, Stories & Examples, Strategy

Sunday morning, my phone blew up. Thirty-three text messages. Most mornings, I have zero, so my first thought was “who died?”

The texts were about a death. Sort of.

Sloan Management Review died (ceased publication) and a group chat filled with academics, thought leaders, and consultants were having an absolute meltdown.

Knowing that my husband, an actual Sloan graduate, hadn’t yet seen the news, I broke it to him gently. “Okay,” he shrugged, not even glancing up from his phone.

This was in stark contrast to his reactions to the demise of Spirit Airlines (howling with laughter at the memes) and the resurrection of Allbirds as an AI company (thoughtful and incredibly technical analysis).

Lesson 1: The Race to the Bottom Never Ends Well

CNN’s headline said it all, “Why did Spirit fail? Too many passengers hated flying it.” To prove the point, the article opens,

“Lousy service, not the Iran war, killed Spirit Airlines.  Spirit was doomed to fail because of mismanagement, deep financial problems, and – crucially – its reputation for poor customer service.  The spike in jet fuel prices during the war just accelerated Spirit’s inevitable demise.”

If that can be written about your business, you don’t deserve to be in business.

It’s only a matter of time until you’re not.

 

Lesson 2: Be Patient for Growth and Impatient for Profit

Allbirds raised $348 million when it IPOed in 2021 and, at one point, was valued at $4.1 billion despite never turning a profit. Six years later, its stock price had fallen 95% and it sold its business and IP to a brand management company for $39 million.

How did this happen? There are plenty of theories – it expanded too aggressively into bricks and mortar retail, it made ugly shoes but operated like a fashion brand, its Tech Bro image is no longer aspirational for Gen Z customers – but the fact is that it prioritized growth over profit and that ultimately bit them in the balance sheet.

 

Lesson 3: Some Businesses are Butterflies

While my colleagues’ alarm was understandable, it missed the bigger picture.

Sloan Management Review (SMR) didn’t die. It metamorphosed.

Yes, the SMR brand is going away, but future ideas, research and findings will continue to be shared through digital newsletters, short-form videos, podcasts, and social-first content.

In effect, SMR is metamorphosing to better reflect how its subscribers consume information. Busy executives don’t have the time to read long-form, dense research articles. They grab information in snippets and soundbites. This change ensures the people who need the ideas the most get them.

3 Questions to Find Your Fate
  1. Do you treat your customers like they exist for your benefit? In other words, are you more focused on value extraction than value creation and delivery? If yes, start planning your business’ funeral and don’t expect anyone to attend.
  1. Do you have a financially and operationally sustainable business model? If no, start planning your funeral but take comfort in the fact that people will attend and may even say nice things about you.
  1. Do you know the unique, relevant, valuable, and hard to imitate reason why you exist? Can you articulate the rare and essential Job to be Done you do for your customers? If no, you’re on life support. When you can answer yes, you’ll be ready to be a butterfly.

 

One quick caveat

When businesses die, people lose their jobs and that is incredibly tragic. The psychological, financial, and relational impacts of job loss are tremendous, impacting people far beyond the individual laid off. It can take months, even years for people and families to recover and, for some, it never happens.

Creative destruction is real and necessary for long-term economic, technological, and societal growth. But the short-term impact has human consequences that should never be ignored.