Solving the Strategy Execution Gap: Concurrent, Not Consecutive

Solving the Strategy Execution Gap: Concurrent, Not Consecutive

“Happy New Year!”

Every July 1, this is how one of my P&G colleagues greeted me as I walked into the office. We’d spent the past three months writing the strategic plan. On July 1, the start of the new fiscal, we finally got to start doing everything we had been planning.

That list of activities survived about as long as the average resolution.

  • End of Week 1, 23% were “on hold” or canceled
  • End of July, about 50% of the plan was changed or abandoned
  • End of August, 80% of it was irrelevant because of “new strategic priorities.”

And this was in the late 1990s when things were measured in months and quarters.

 

If it’s an event, it’s a waste of time

In the 1990s, change was largely linear, so a linear strategic planning process that ran consecutively with business planning not only made sense, but it also worked. Today, the pace of change is exponential, which means that linear, step-by-step processes no longer work. As Dave Chappelle said, “Modern problems require modern solutions.”

Unfortunately, companies are struggling to create modern solutions for strategic planning. In research conducted using the Cascade Maturity Assessment, most respondents stated that their company’s cadence of strategic meetings and updates is somewhat or completely ineffective.

Many of the executives I’ve spoken with are nervous about switching from a calendar-based annual planning process to something that’s more ongoing. After all, they explain, “strategic planning” is a huge “time suck” for the organization and distracts from the “real work” of running the business.

Except that strategic planning is an essential part of running the business.

 

If it’s a habit, it happens.

 “We’ve built muscle and improved how we approach strategy…doing this repeatedly over the last few years.” – Director at a $10B+ revenue corporation with 10-50k employees (one of the top two scorers in the research)

If strategy is to be an automatic, ongoing, almost intuitive part of running a business, it needs to become a habit. Luckily, the same things that build personal habits – learning, repetition, sensory cues, goal pursuit – also build business habits.

SparkCraft Strategies (who did not work with the executive quoted above) helps organizations build both their strategies and their habits. MileZero and SparkCraft often partner on this type of work and, for over a year, SparkCraft has been working with a client to develop the organization’s strategic planning process and capability.

Defining the process was the “easy” part (not easy, just easy relative to everything else). The hard part is building tools that drive actions and decisions that require the critical thinking and creative problem solving necessary to be strategic.  Over the course of a year (or more), SparkCraft works with the client to build a strategic thinking and planning habit, ensuring that strategy is inextricably linked with operations, not just bolted on.

 

If it’s the culture, it’s the gold standard

“It has worked because we grounded it (strategy) in culture and employees are growing and driving the change” – CEO of a $1-50M startup (the other top scoring company from the research)

Culture is the result of the values and tools an organization consistently uses. Culture, like habit, is implicit, more sensed than spoken. Unlike a habit, it’s shared, pervasive, and enduring. That means that (most) everyone senses, thinks about, talks about, and acts on it simply because they are part of that organization.

The CEO quoted above started by making strategy a habit. Monthly, the leadership team discussed, debated, and updated it. Quarterly, all-hands meetings shared it and invited questions, feedback, and dissent. And performance reviews and incentive plans made it part of how people were measured and paid. Over time, through consistent, repeated, and reinforced activity, strategy became part of the culture and the identity of the company. It is who they are and what they do.

 

Strategy only works when it is part of the work, repeated until it is who you are.

If you would like to see how your organization scores, click here to take the Strategy Maturity Assessment. Your results will be sent directly to me, not to Cascade, and you will not be added to a mailing list.  Please note that some people have had trouble using Gmail and other free e-mail accounts.

Methodology note: The Strategy Maturity Assessment was designed by Cascade and administered by MileZero as a self-serve survey to a sample of MileZero’s own clients: 18 self-selected respondents from 18 different companies, varying in role, revenue, and size. Findings are directional and should not be interpreted as scientific, random, or representative sample. Scores come from a proprietary scoring of Yes / Somewhat / No answers and show relative patterns, not precise measurements. All findings are the opinions of individual participants as of the date they responded, not statements of fact.

FAQs

Why do strategic plans fail so fast after they're written?

Because they’re built as an event. At P&G in the late 1990s, 23% of the plan was on hold or canceled by the end of week one. Half was changed or abandoned by the end of July. By the end of August, 80% was irrelevant. Linear planning worked when change was linear. Today change is exponential, and a once-a-year plan can’t keep up.

What does a strategy execution framework that actually works look like?

Concurrent, not consecutive. Strategy moves through three stages. As an event, it’s a once-a-year plan that goes stale. As a habit, it’s built through learning, repetition, cues, and goal pursuit until it runs alongside operations. As culture, it’s who you are. One top-scoring CEO got there with monthly leadership updates, quarterly all-hands that invited dissent, and performance reviews and incentives tied to strategy.

How do you build internal strategy capability while working with outside consultants?

Build the habit, not just the process. Defining the planning process is the easy part. The hard part is building tools that drive the critical thinking and creative problem solving strategy needs. MileZero partner SparkCraft Strategies has spent over a year with one client doing exactly that, building a strategic thinking and planning habit so strategy is linked to operations, not bolted on.

Silent and Deadly: The Root Cause of the Strategy-Execution Gap

Silent and Deadly: The Root Cause of the Strategy-Execution Gap

The is the third article exploring the strategy-execution gap.  You can read the first and seond ones by clicking the links.

“He who is silent is taken to agree” – Latin proverb

“Speak now or forever hold your peace.” – The Book of Common Prayer

“My level of silence is often mistaken for agreement. It’s the caffeine deciding if this conversation is worth the effort.” – coffee mug

Every manager and executive says they agree with the strategy and its goals. And they mean it.

 

It’s what they’re NOT saying that makes all the difference.

“I know what you want me to do but how do you expect me to do it?”

This isn’t a plea or request for micro-management. After all, two-thirds of Directors have access to a centralized system for tracking performance metrics and KPIs.

But knowing what is expected and delivering it are two different things. Less than one-third of respondents are prepared for change (including only 13% of C-Suite execs!) and not a single VP, Director, or Manager has the resources to execute and deliver their goals.

 

 “Actions speak louder than words, and we’re speaking two different languages.”

Every single survey respondent said their organization has well-defined company values. But only 50% of VPs and 33% of Directors see those values reflected in their colleagues’ behaviors.

 

“If you want the team to deliver X, why are you rewarding us for different things unrelated to X?”
Fifty percent of VPs and two-thirds of directors have clear functional or team plans with explicit KPIs. What nearly 60% don’t have are functional plans aligned with the organization’s goals and clear ownership for delivering SMART objectives.

When functional strategies don’t tie to organizational ones, it’s no surprise that only 25% of the C-Suite, 15% of VPs, and 0% of Directors and Managers see cross-functional alignment on execution.

 

Resistance rarely looks like rebellion

“Change is always met with resistance,” explained one Manager.

Usually, resistance looks reasonable. A request for “one more set of eyes.” A call to one more person. One more run through the committee to make sure everyone’s comfortable.

In fact, most people don’t even know they’re resisting change. They’re simply following rules and processes set up years before this year’s strategy existed. And while it slows strategic execution, isn’t it worth it to keep the company safe?

This type of resistance is solvable. Change a process, introduce an incentive, “flatten the org.”

But that’s not the resistance the data shows. That kind is silent and deadly.

 

You must ask for what they won’t say

Speaking up to say the strategy won’t work or the goal can’t be achieved costs a relationship, a reputation, maybe a promotion. So, your team stays silent, and you see it as agreement.

But that silence is preventing you from getting the information and perspective you need to build a strategy that can succeed because people genuinely agree and are able to execute it.

It’s not enough to ask people to speak up or play devil’s advocate. You must eliminate the cost of doing so:

Go first. Call out the weakest part of your own plan before you ask them to poke holes in it. Every company claims humility and candor as a value, yet half your VPs and two-thirds of your directors don’t see it.

Ask for how, not yes. “Are you with me?” gets silent nods. “What would have to be true for this to work in your group?” draws out the constraints they keep to themselves.

Reward the challenge. If incentives still reward last year’s behaviors and goals, you’ll never get execution of this year’s strategy. And while updating incentives is a start, you won’t hear the hard truth until people have incentives to speak it.

Your team already knows how the strategy will fail. Ask them to tell you. Then fix it together.


If you would like to see how your organization scores, click here to take the Strategy Maturity Assessment. Your results will be sent directly to me, not to Cascade, and you will not be added to a mailing list.  Please note that some people have had trouble using Gmail and other free e-mail accounts.

Methodology note: The Strategy Maturity Assessment was designed by Cascade and administered by MileZero as a self-serve survey to a sample of MileZero’s own clients: 18 self-selected respondents from 18 different companies, varying in role, revenue, and size. Findings are directional and should not be interpreted as scientific, random, or representative sample. Scores come from a proprietary scoring of Yes / Somewhat / No answers and show relative patterns, not precise measurements. All findings are the opinions of individual participants as of the date they responded, not statements of fact.

FAQs

Why do strategic plans fail when everyone says they agree?

Every manager and executive says they agree with the strategy. They mean it. The problem is what they don’t say. In a survey of MileZero clients, not a single VP, Director, or Manager had the resources to deliver their goals, and nearly 60% lacked functional plans tied to company goals. Speaking up feels costly, so they stay quiet. Your team already knows how the strategy will fail. Ask them.

Why does diligence turn into delay in corporate decision-making?

Because the delay looks reasonable. A request for one more set of eyes. A call to one more person. One more run through the committee to make sure everyone is comfortable. Most people don’t even know they’re resisting. They’re following rules and processes set up years before this year’s strategy existed. The fix is concrete: change the process or the incentive.

What does resistance to change look like inside a company?

There are two kinds. The first looks like diligence: one more set of eyes, one more committee review. A process or incentive change fixes it. The second kind is silent and deadly. People doubt the strategy can work, but speaking up could cost a relationship, a reputation, or a promotion. So they nod, and leaders mistake silence for agreement.

How do you overcome resistance to a strategy your team already agreed to?

Asking people to speak up isn’t enough. You have to remove the cost of speaking up. Go first: name the weakest part of your own plan before you ask them to poke holes in it. Ask for how, not yes: “What would have to be true for this to work in your group?” Reward the challenge, because people won’t tell you the hard truth until they have an incentive to.

Your VPs See a Strategy-Execution Gap You Don’t (and Only You Can Fix It)

Your VPs See a Strategy-Execution Gap You Don’t (and Only You Can Fix It)

“We had OKRs until 8 months ago when new ELT members came in and decided to abandon them.”

The VP sighed and shook her head. Her company, a mid-sized, multi-million-dollar business, was maturing. Growth had slowed from its heady startup days and was going through the usual growing pains: the founding CEO had stepped down, external hires joined the leadership team, and new processes were making their way into daily work.

The new rigor of building and rolling out a strategy was welcomed and the organization was learning how to operate in a more “streamlined” (and less “entrepreneurial”) manner.

The company’s evolution was going as well as could be expected, until everything changed.

And she was left holding the bag.

 

 She’s not alone amongst her peers

In research conducted using Cascade’s Strategic Maturity Assessment, VPs scored their companies lowest in four of the five pillars studied

On Focus, the first pillar, two-thirds of both the VPs and the C-Suite gave feel their companies are able to identify and clarify strategic priorities and goals.

That’s the good news.

The bad news is everything else

  • Alignment (transparency and involvement across the organization): Only 38% of VPs believe their companies are performing well, half the score the C-suite gives this pillar (66%).
  • Visibility (communication of, and access to, data and insights): The gap shrinks, but VPs still rate Visibility lower (59%) than any other cohort (C-Suite rates at 70% “mature”).
  • Accountability (sense of ownership and commitment): A 22-percentage point gap exists between VP perception and C-Suite (49% vs. 71%)
  • Speed (ability to adapt and evolve): This is the single biggest gap of any pillar (30-percentage points) between VPs (42% rate their companies’ speed as good) and the C-Suite (72%)

 

She is alone in the organization

What’s shocking is that the Directors and Managers that report up to VPs are genuinely more positive and optimistic. In fact, Directors are more positive about Focus, Visibility, and Accountability, than the C-Suite!

In a world where everything seems to roll downhill, why are things getting caught so close to the top?

Another VP, from a multi-billion-dollar company, offered an answer:

“Priorities tend to shift and are often vague or confusing. Resources, people, systems, and processes are severely lacking.” (VP, $10B+, under 1,000 employees)

VPs know what to do, they gave input on the strategy, and agree with it. But they don’t have the authority to get it resourced.

As if that weren’t tough enough, based on the perceptions reflected in the survey data, they’re putting on a brave face and shielding their teams from the futility of the quest.

 

She doesn’t have to be

“Do more with less” is hitting everyone. The absurdity of immediate AI-driven time (and cost) savings is obvious to everyone with a chatbot. The mandates to beat earnings and deliver record profit are relentless.

And in the middle of it all are the VPs who agree with strategic priorities but lack the resources to deliver them at the pace and scale demanded.

And that’s before a new ELT arrives or the business has a down quarter.

If your VPs sound tired, don’t assume they don’t believe in the strategy or that they’re trying to sandbag their goals.

Ask what they need to deliver the strategy and goals. The answer will be headcount, budget, or a promise that outlasts the next reorg.

You won’t be able to give them everything they ask for but you can (and must) give them more than a promise. Help them creatively problem-solve, connect them to non-traditional sources of talent (e.g. freelancers, temp hires, interns), critically evaluate your budget to ensure spending aligns with strategy.

Your VPs believe in the strategy as much as you do. The only question is whether you’ve given them what they need to deliver it before the next new executive walks in and abandons it.


If you would like to see how your organization scores, click here to take the Strategy Maturity Assessment. Your results will be sent directly to me, not to Cascade, and you will not be added to a mailing list.  Please note that some people have had trouble using Gmail and other free e-mail accounts.


Methodology note: The Strategy Maturity Assessment was designed by Cascade and administered by MileZero as a self-serve survey to a sample of MileZero’s own clients: 18 self-selected respondents from 18 different companies, varying in role, revenue, and size. Findings are directional and should not be interpreted as scientific, random, or representative sample. Scores come from a proprietary scoring of Yes / Somewhat / No answers and show relative patterns, not precise measurements. All findings are the opinions of individual participants as of the date they responded, not statements of fact.

FAQs

Why do VPs agree with a strategy but still can't execute it?

The VPs surveyed gave input on the strategy and agree with it. What stalls execution is authority. They can’t get it resourced. One VP said it plainly: priorities tend to shift and are often vague or confusing, and resources, people, systems, and processes are severely lacking.

Why do strategic plans keep failing even when everyone agrees with them?

Often it isn’t the plan. One VP watched her company’s OKRs get scrapped eight months in when new leadership arrived and decided to abandon them. VPs believe in the strategy as much as the C-suite does. Plans fail when a leadership change wipes out the work before it gets resourced, not because the strategy was wrong.

Is there a framework for diagnosing why a good decision never gets implemented?

Use Cascade’s Maturity Assessment to score your company on five pillars: Focus, Alignment, Visibility, Accountability, and Speed. Most agree on Focus, two thirds of VPs and the C-suite say they can name their priorities. The other four pillars are where decisions actually die. Cascade’s Strategic Maturity Assessment found VPs rate Alignment, Visibility, Accountability, and Speed lower than the C-suite rates them, on every single one.

The Strategy-Execution Gap Doesn’t Happen at Execution. It Happens Much Sooner.

The Strategy-Execution Gap Doesn’t Happen at Execution. It Happens Much Sooner.

It always amused me that the most “prestigious” consulting firms positioned themselves as specialists in strategy. Because if you believe the research that says that 67% to 90% of strategies fail, that means that McBainCG are really bad at their jobs!

They’re not (and I’m not writing that just because I used to be employed by one of them).

It’s because strategy development is only the first step on the path to execution.

The problem of a “Strategy-Execution Gap” isn’t new. But it oversimplifies the issue, rendering it unsolvable.

Believing that developing and communicating is sufficient to turn it into execution, then getting mad when that doesn’t happen, establishes and “us vs. them” mentality. Conversely, receiving a strategy that feels divorced from the reality of on-the-ground resources, constraints, and operations, engenders resentment amongst the rank and file.

The answer falls somewhere between strategy development and strategy execution.

In partnership with Cascade, an AI-powered strategy execution platform, I set off to find that somewhere.

 

5 steps from strategy to execution

There are five pillars of a “strategically mature” company (one that consistently translates strategy into execution:

  1. Focus: Ability to proactively develop clear plan that anticipates trends and sets goals
  2. Alignment: Transparency and involvement across the organization and with external stakeholders
  3. Visibility: Communication of, and access to, data and insights that empower decision-making at every level
  4. Accountability: Ability foster ownership and commitment across teams and individuals
  5. Speed: Ability adapt to evolving conditions and make decisions in a timely manner

 

5 levels of “Strategic Maturity”

In Cascade’s Strategic Maturity Assessments, organizations are evaluated against each of these five pillars and then scored on a level of one to five, with one being the least mature and five being fully mature.  Not surprisingly, most organizations fall in the middle:

  • Level 2: A basic annual strategic planning process that sets defined goals but there is limited alignment with broader business objective
  • Level 3: A formal strategy process produces clearly articulated goals, resources, and responsibilities and are integrated with business objectives with rudimentary measurement and success metrics
  • Level 4: Strategy is fully integrated in all business functions and cross-functional teams with continuous means to ensure alignment between strategic and operational goals.

 

1 Glaring Gap

Everything falls apart at Alignment.

Between 63% and 67% of respondents agreed with statements indicating strong focuses on Focus (a clear plan), Visibility (access to insights), Accountability (ownership of results), and Speed (adaptability). But Alignment? That was a 10-percentage point drop.

And the news gets worse the deeper you go:

  • 38% of VPs feel their organization have strong alignment compared to 66% of C-Suite executives
  • Only 1 respondent (a C-suite exec) feels they have adequate resources to implement initiatives and 67% of VPs and Directors disagree that they have what they need
  • 25% of C-suite execs, 17% of VPs, and 0% of Directors and Managers feel strongly there is cross-functional alignment to executing the strategy

Yikes!

Root causes for this failure were consistent across company sizes (revenue, number of employees):

  • “We are a highly fragmented and siloed org that has gone through several mergers recently” (C-Suite · $10B+ · 10–50k employees)
  • “Organization siloes, conflicting priorities, protecting the legacy” (VP · $1–10B · 10–50k employees)

 

1 glimmer of hope

The solution isn’t a better strategy or process. It’s a habit and culture of empowerment

One startup CEO explained: “It (strategy) has worked because we grounded it in culture and employees are growing and driving the change.” A director at a Fortune 500 company described the same pattern from a different angle: “We’ve built muscle and improved how we approach strategy, doing this repeatedly over the last few years.”

The highest scorers built Alignment into the process, not as data-gathering “involvement” and head-nodding but as genuine engagement, buy-in, and empowerment. Does your strategic planning process do that?


If you would like to see how your organization scores, click here to take the Strategy Maturity Assessment. Your results will be sent directly to me, not to Cascade, and you will not be added to a mailing list.  Please note that some people have had trouble using Gmail and other free e-mail accounts.


Methodology note: The Strategy Maturity Assessment was designed by Cascade and administered by MileZero as a self-serve survey to a sample of MileZero’s own clients: 18 self-selected respondents from 18 different companies, varying in role, revenue, and size. Findings are directional and should not be interpreted as scientific, random, or representative sample. Scores come from a proprietary scoring of Yes / Somewhat / No answers and show relative patterns, not precise measurements. All findings are the opinions of individual participants as of the date they responded, not statements of fact.

FAQs

Why do most strategic plans fail?

Not because the strategy was wrong. Research puts strategy failure between 67% and 90%, and that’s not because those firms can’t develop a strategy. It’s because strategy development is only the first step. In Mile Zero’s Strategic Maturity data, four of five execution pillars scored strong. The one that collapsed: Alignment. That gap, not a bad plan, is where most strategies actually die.

What causes strategic decisions to stall inside a corporation?

Same root causes, regardless of company size. One executive summed it up: “We are a highly fragmented and siloed org that has gone through several mergers recently.” Another named “organization siloes, conflicting priorities, protecting the legacy.” Add in resources: 67% of VPs and Directors say they don’t have what they need to execute. Silos plus scarcity stall even a good decision.

What does a real strategy execution framework look like?

Five pillars, not one silver bullet: Focus, Alignment, Visibility, Accountability, and Speed. Cascade’s Strategic Maturity Assessment scores a company one to five on each, from a basic annual planning process with little follow-through to strategy fully built into every function and cross-functional team. Score all five pillars, and you find out exactly where execution actually breaks.

How do you overcome internal resistance to a strategy everyone already agreed to?

Not with a better deck. The highest scorers in Mile Zero’s Strategic Maturity data didn’t treat Alignment as a data-gathering exercise, checking a box for “involvement” then nodding along. They built genuine engagement, buy-in, and empowerment into the process itself. One founder put it simply: it worked because they grounded the strategy in culture, and let employees drive the change.

AI Efficiency Myth: The Real Cost of ‘Try AI!’

AI Efficiency Myth: The Real Cost of ‘Try AI!’

“Try AI. It will make you more efficient,” every executive at least once in the past three months.

And it always makes me laugh.

Yes, AI will make save you time and effort. Eventually. But not on the timeline you, or your boss, is comfortable with.

 

A story that proves the rule

A few days ago, I spent 4 hours building a single AI tool for one research task.

Some context: I use AI Daily and have built prompts, tools and agents to streamline regular tasks. The idea came from a Whop site that I use regularly, which outlined the specific tools, prompts, and steps required to successfully build an AEO (answer engine optimization) scanning tool.

That’s why I only blocked four hours for the build.

To build the tool, I created new accounts on four different websites, worked in Terminal, Claude Cowork, and Claude Code, and referred to instructions from both the originating website and Claude.

If I had a boss or an IT department, neither would be happy with me.

Why? After all, I built a tool for a task that was too complicated and time-consuming to do previously, will run automatically every week, recommends practical fixes, and measures impact against meaningful business metrics.

I’ve also had bosses that, if I told them I spent 10% of my week on this, would say, “that’s nice but where do we stand on (fill in the blank).”

 

The cost of efficiency

 “Lean is the enemy of learning,” according to MIT professor, Ben Armstrong. That’s as true for AI in the office as it is on the manufacturing floor.

Learning is inherently inefficient. Baked into the experience are user mistakes,  unexpected outcomes, and dead ends. But those mistakes, outcomes, and dead ends generate the insights required to increase the odds the next attempt will succeed.

As Thomas Edison said, “I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that don’t work.”

When we do ultimately succeed, we almost immediately forget time, money, and effort the learning cost us. But forgetting is what makes harder to keep learning. And it results in nonsense like, “try AI. It will make you more efficient.”

 

The value of waste

Next time you’re tempted to say, “try AI,” stop and ask yourself these five questions:

  1. “Why am I saying this?” Do you really believe that AI is a solution to the problem you’re hearing or are you just saying it because the company is pushing AI? If it’s the latter, just provide a solution to the problem. If it’s the former, keep reading.
  2. “What does ‘efficiency’ look like?” As with all experiments, define success first. Do you expect time to completion to be cut in half? Or for it to take just as long, with fewer people? Or maybe it simply costs less. Without a goal, AI is just a toy.
  3. “How long am I willing to wait for efficiency?” Efficiency doesn’t magically appear the moment a prompt or tool spits out a response. Are you willing to dedicate an hour a week, even if it takes six months to be efficient. Or is success expected in a day, no matter how many hours?
  4. “Am I willing to pay the cost of learning?” The costs of learning go beyond trainings and tools. It’s the opportunity cost of time spent on another project, calls to customers, conversations with consumers, engagement in meetings. If you’re not willing to pay all those costs, don’t encourage people to “try AI.”    
  5. “How will I reward and spread this learning?” Your “learning waste” can create value for your organization. But only if you reward the people who did the work and spread the learning beyond your team, enabling people to build on what’s known with less “waste.”

“Try AI” is a shortcut to avoid the hard and inefficient work of learning. But paying the cost is the only way to earn the efficiency.

Christensen’s #1 Sign You’re About to be Disrupted

Christensen’s #1 Sign You’re About to be Disrupted

“Disruption [is] driven by the pursuit of profit. That’s the causal mechanism for these things…”

Clayton Christensen at the 2011 Gartner Symposium ITExpo

When I told a client that peak profit was one of the signs that they were about to be disrupted, his jaw fell open. He didn’t believe me because, like any businessperson, achieving record profit is THE reason to celebrate. His company had just doubled revenue in the past five years and was positioned to double again in the next five. AND they supply mission-critical systems to build out data centers.

Business literally could not be better.

Which is exactly what the CEOs of Big Steel thought in 1968.

 

 

It wasn’t too big to fail.

“US Steel posted record profit margins in the years prior to unseating by the minimills; in many ways it was blind to its disruption.”

Clayton Christensen in HBR

Since the mid 1850s, steel was produced in integrated steel mills that performed every function required to produce the material that was building America. The costs to build a mill were high, about $8B in today’s dollars, and, to operate efficiently, mills ran 24/7 to produce at least 2M tons of steel per year.

In 1968, a metallurgist at Nucor invented something called the minimill.  It could only perform half of the functions of an integrated mill and produced only rebar, the lowest quality of steel. But the minimill cost only $6M and could be profitable at just 50,000 tons of production.

Christensen called the minimill “not good enough.”  He was being nice. The minimill was a joke.

Rebar was a joke, too. At just 4% of the steel market, it had the lowest gross margin of any type of steel. Ceding it to minimills freed up integrated mill capacity to produce more high profit steel. By 1977, Nucor was the leading manufacturer of rebar.

It had also spent 7 years improving the minimill.

The pattern continued:

  • 1984: Big steel cedes the angle iron, bars, and rods to Nucor
  • 1989: Bethlehem Steel’s market value jumps to $2.4B, from $175M just 3 years earlier
  • 1993: Minimills directly compete with integrated mills in all segments of the market.
  • 1995: Bethlehem Steel’s primary plant ceases operations
  • 2001: Bethlehem Steel files for Chapter 11
  • 2003: Minimills production exceeds integrated mills while Bethlehem Steel ceases to exist.

By 2017, only 9 integrated mills were still operating in the US, compared to 111 active minimills. The disruption took 35 years to play out.

 

 

You don’t have 35 years

The steel industry isn’t the only example:

Company Time to Disruption Peak Disruption Disruptor
Sears 30 years 1969: World’s largest retailer 1999: Removed from Dow Jones Industrial Average Walmart, Kmart, Target, Amazon
Kodak 16 years 1996: Record $16B revenue 2012: Filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Digital photography
Blockbuster 6 years 2004: Record revenue: $6B 2010: Filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Redbox, Netflix
Nokia 7 years 2007: Record Net Profit $51B, 40% of global handset market 2014: Handset business sold to Microsoft for $7.2B iPhone, Android
Intel 3 years 2021: Record revenue $79B 2024: Worst ever stock year as price goes below $18/share TSMC, Nvidia

 

 

 

It’s happening right now.  Are you seeing it?

“Financial results measure how healthy the business was, not how healthy the business is. Financial results are a particularly bad tool to manage disruption, because moving up-market feels good financially.”

Clayton Christensen and Michael E. Raynor, The Innovator’s Solution

 Executives and shareholders may feel good right now because, despite supply chain disruptions and high interest rates, earnings are buoyed by “margin expansion” and “revenue beats.” AI feels like an opportunity, not a threat. And there’s no reason to believe that tomorrow’s results will be worse than today’s numbers.

It’s exactly how the CEOs of Big Steel felt in 1968.

You still have time to find the joke.