by Robyn Bolton | Feb 8, 2026 | AI, Leadership, Leading Through Uncertainty, Strategic Foresight, Strategy
In 2023, Klarna’s CEO proudly announced it had replaced 700 customer service workers with AI and that the chatbot was handling two-thirds of customer queries. Labor costs dropped and victory was declared.
By 2025, Klarna was rehiring. Customer satisfaction had tanked. The CEO admitted they “went too far,” focusing on efficiency over quality.
Like Captain Robert Scott, Klarna misjudged the circumstance it was in, applied the wrong playbook, and lost. It thought it had facts but all it has was technical specs. It made tons of assumptions about chatbots’ ability to replace human judgment and how customers would respond.
Calibrated Decision Design, a process for diagnosing your circumstances before picking a playbook, consistently proves to be a quick and necessary step to ensure success.
When you have the facts and need results ASAP: Go NOW!
General Mills, like its competitors, had been digitizing its supply chain for years and so facts based on experience and a list of the facts it needed.
To close the gap and achieve end-to-end visibility in its supply chain, it worked with Palantir to develop a digital twin of its entire supply chain. Results: 30% waste reduction, $300 million in savings, decisions that took weeks now takes hours. It proves that you don’t need all the answers to make a move, but you need to know more than you don’t.
When you have hypotheses but can’t wait for results: Discovery Planning
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s (MSWM) clients expect advisors to bring them bespoke advice based on mountains of analysis, and insights. But it’s impossible for any advisor to process all that data. Confident that AI could help but uncertain whether its would improve relationships or create friction, MSWM partnered with OpenAI.
Within six months, they debuted a GenAI chatbot to help Financial Advisors quickly access the firm’s IP. Document retrieval jumped from 20% to 80% and 98% now use it daily. Two years later, MSWM expanded into a meeting summary tool to summarize meetings into actionable outputs and update the CRM with notes and follow-ups. A perfect example of how a series of experiments leads to a series of successes.
When you have facts and time to achieve results: Patient Planning
Drug discovery requires patience and, while the process may be predictable, the results aren’t. That’s why pharma companies need strategies that are thoughtfully planned as they are responsive.
Lilly is doing just that by investing in its own capabilities and building an ecosystem of partners. It started by launching TuneLab, a platform offering access to AI-enabled drug discovery models based on data that Lilly spent over $1 billion developing. A month later, the pharma giant announced a partnership with NVIDIA to build the pharmaceutical industry’s most powerful AI supercomputer. Two months later, it committed over $6 billion to a new manufacturing facility in Alabama. These aren’t billion-dollar bets, they’re thoughtful investments in a long-term future that allows Lilly to learn now and stay flexible as needs and technology evolve.
When you’re making assumptions and have time to learn: Resilient Strategy
There’s no way of knowing what the global energy system will look like in 40 years. That’s why Shell’s latest scenario planning efforts resulted in three distinct scenarios, Surge, Archipelagos, and Horizon. Multiple scenarios allows the company to “explore trade-offs between energy security, economic growth and addressing carbon emissions” and build resilient strategies to recognize which one is unfolding and pivot before competitors even spot what’s happening.
Stop benchmarking. Start diagnosing.
It’s easy to feel like you’re behind when it comes to AI. But the rush to act before you know the problem and the circumstances is far more likely to make you a cautionary tale than a poster child for success.
So, stop benchmarking what competitors do and start diagnosing the circumstances you’re in, so you use the playbook you need.
by Robyn Bolton | Jul 8, 2025 | Strategic Foresight, Strategy
You stand on the brink of an exciting new adventure. Turmoil and uncertainty have convinced you that future success requires more than the short-term strategic and business planning tools you’ve used. You’ve cut through the hype surrounding Strategic Foresight and studied success. You are ready to lead your company into its bold future.
So, where do you start?
Most executives get caught up in all the things that need to happen and are distracted by all the tools, jargon, and pretty pictures that get thrown at them. But you are smarter than that. You know that there are three things you must do at the beginning to ensure ultimate success.
Give Foresight Executive Authority and Access
Foresight without responsibility is intellectual daydreaming.
While the practice of research and scenario design can be delegated to planning offices, the responsibility for debating, deciding, and using Strategic Foresight must rest with P&L owners.
Amy Webb’s research at NYU shows that when a C-Suite executive with the authority to force strategic reviews oversaw foresight activities, the results were more likely to be acted on and integrated into strategic and operational plans. Shell serves as a specific example of this, as its foresight team reported directly to the executive committee, so that when scenarios explored dramatic oil price volatility, Shell executives personally reviewed strategic portfolios and authorized immediate capability building.
Start by asking:
- Who can force strategic reviews outside of the traditional planning process?
- What triggers a review of Strategic Foresight scenarios?
- How do we hold people accountable for acting on insights?
Demand Inputs That Challenge Your Assumptions
If your Strategic Foresight conversations don’t make you uncomfortable, you’re doing them wrong.
Webb’s research also shows that successful foresight systematically explores fundamental changes that could render the existing business obsolete.
Shell’s scenarios went beyond assumptions about oil price stability to explore supply disruptions, geopolitical shifts, and demand transformation. Disney’s foresight set aside traditional assumptions about media consumption and explored how technology could completely reshape content creation, distribution, and consumption.
Start by asking these questions:
- Is the team going beyond trend analysis and exploring technology, regulations, social changes, and economic developments that could restructure entire markets?
- Who are we talking to in other industries? What unusual, unexpected, and maybe crazy sources are we using to inform our scenarios?
- Does at least one scenario feel possible and terrifying?
Integrate Foresight into Existing Planning Processes
Strategic Foresight that doesn’t connect to resource allocation decisions is expensive research.
Your planning processes must connect Strategic Foresight’s long-term scenarios to Strategic Planning’s 3–5-year plans and to your annual budget and resource decisions. No separate foresight exercises. No parallel planning tracks. The cascade from 20-year scenarios to this year’s investments must be explicit and ruthless.
When Shell’s scenarios explored dramatic oil price volatility over decades, Shell didn’t file them away and wait for them to come true. They immediately reviewed their strategic portfolio and developed a 3–5-year plan to build capabilities for multiple oil futures. This was then translated into immediate capital allocation changes.
Disney’s foresight about changing media consumption in the next 20 years informed strategic planning for Disney+ and, ultimately, its operational launch.
Start by asking these questions:
- How is Strategic Foresight linked to our strategic and business planning processes?
- How do scenarios flow from 20-year insights through 5-year strategy to this year’s budget decisions?
- How is the integration of Strategic Foresight into annual business planning measured and rewarded?
Three Steps. One Outcome.
Strategic foresight efforts succeed when they have the executive authority, provocative inputs, and integrated processes to drive resource allocation decisions. Taking these three steps at the very start sets you, your team, and your organization up for success. But they’re still not a guarantee.
Ready to avoid the predictable pitfalls? Next week, we’ll consider why strategic foresight fails and how to prevent your efforts from joining them.
