Just as we got used to VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous) futurists now claim “the world is BANI now.” BANI (brittle, anxious, nonlinear, incomprehensible) is much worse than VUCA and reflects “the fractured, unpredictable state of the modern world.”
Not to get too Gen X on the futurists who coined and are spreading this term but…shut up.
Is the world fractured and unpredictable? Yes.
Does it feel brittle? Are we more anxious than ever? Are things changing at exponential speed, requiring nonlinear responses? Does the world feel incomprehensible? Yes, to all.
Naming a problem is the first step in solving it. The second step is falling in love with the problem so that we become laser focused on solving it. BANI does the first but fails at the second. It wallows in the problem without proposing a path forward. And as the sign says, “Ain’t nobody got time for this.”
(Re)Introducing the Cynefin Framework
The Cynefin framework recognizes that leadership and problem-solving must be contextual to be effective. Using the Welsh word for “habitat,” the framework is a tool to understand and name the context of a situation and identify the approaches best suited for managing or solving the situation.
It’s grounded in the idea that every context – situation, challenge, problem, opportunity – exists somewhere on a spectrum between Ordered and Unordered. At the Ordered end of the spectrum, cause and affect are obvious and immediate and the path forward is based on objective, immutable facts. Unordered contexts, however, have no obvious or immediate relationship between cause and effect and moving forward requires people to recognize patterns as they emerge.
Both VUCA and BANI point out the obvious – we’re spending more time on the Unordered end of the spectrum than ever. Unlike the acronyms, Cynefin helps leaders decide and act.
5 Contexts. 5 Ways Forward
The Cynefin framework identifies five contexts, each with its own best practices for making decisions and progress.
On the Ordered end of the spectrum:
- Simple contexts are characterized by stability and obvious and undisputed right answers. Here, patterns repeat, and events are consistent. This is where leaders rely on best practices to inform decisions and delegation, and direct communication to move their teams forward.
- Complicated contexts have many possible right answers and the relationship between cause and effect isn’t known but can be discovered. Here, leaders need to rely on diverse expertise and be particularly attuned to conflicting advice and novel ideas to avoid making decisions based on outdated experience.
On the Unordered end of the spectrum:
- Complex contexts are filled with unknown unknowns, many competing ideas, and unpredictable cause and effects. The most effective leadership approach in this context is one that is deeply uncomfortable for most leaders but familiar to innovators – letting patterns emerge. Using small-scale experiments and high levels of collaboration, diversity, and dissent, leaders can accelerate pattern-recognition and place smart bets.
- Chaos are contexts fraught with tension. There are no right answers or clear cause and effect. There are too many decisions to make and not enough time. Here, leaders often freeze or make big bold decisions. Neither is wise. Instead, leaders need to think like emergency responders and rapidly response to re-establish order where possible to bring the situation into a Complex state, rather than trying to solve everything at once.
The final context is Disorder. Here leaders argue, multiple perspectives fight for dominance, and the organization is divided into fractions. Resolution requires breaking the context down into smaller parts that fit one of the four previous contexts and addressing them accordingly.
The Only Way Out is Through
Our VUCA/BANI world isn’t going to get any simpler or easier. And fighting it, freezing, or fleeing isn’t going to solve anything. Organizations need leaders with the courage to move forward and the wisdom and flexibility to do so in a way that is contextually appropriate. Cynefin is their map.
Robyn this is interesting. Have you seen Rick Nason’s work on Complex vs Complicated? He has a slightly different way of defining Complicated – but there is a lot of overlap there. I actually love BANI – I think it describes my life as well as our society – which makes sense, since I must admit, I am part of our society… I hadn’t seen cynefin, but love that it embraces all the things we can’t control.
I haven’t seen Rick Nason’s work but I will certainly check it out. I actually have no problem with BANI as an acronym or even a point of view. The problem I have with it (and many other things) is when it is used as a reason for people to declare something too hard and too overwhelming, and to quit. Yes, the world is BANI. In fact, that may be putting it nicely. But what are we going to do about? I love a good problem but I also love the creative and hard work of trying solutions
If you ever sat through a full weekend workshop of Dave Snowden’s Cynefin framework with his company Cognitive Edge, applying the framework to creative solutions is easier said than done. Most folks walk away inspired but not much better equipped to solving their organizations challenges – which as you often point out Robyn, lie in the complex domain. The best innovations die with corporate re-orgs and siloed coms and all the rest.
Honestly, I think you’re being a bit too harsh on BANI. I think it’s a necessary new way to view our time and place in the world, a view that is internal, that reflects the lived and felt experience of being in a VUCA world. the world FEELS more brittle, anxious, etc. than ever. That’s the innovation here. It’s a 1st person felt sense of this space, and in innovation world terms, that means we are getting empathy for our customers in a new more profound way. Nothing to sneeze at.
If folks want to get solutions oriented, the creator of BANI (the acronym), Jamais Cascio, has just co-authorred and published a book called “Navigating the Age of Chaos” that does indeed go into just what we might to do to navigate this brittle, anxious, nonlinear, incomprehensible world.
Thank You, Curtis! You’re absolutely right that there is merit to BANI and it’s something that needs to be discussed. It’s also something that we need to figure out and tryy to improve. It’s great to know that BANI’s creator feels the same way and that he has a new book about how to navigate the BANI world. As I tell me students, all frameworks are wrong, but some are helpful if we use them right and they lead us to better thinking and action.